Decision Modeler Report

COVID19 Patient Risk for Fatal Disease

Published: 4/14/2020

By: John Svirbely MD

Table of Contents

COVID19 Patient Risk for Fatal Disease

Overview

COVID19 Patient Risk Fatal Disease

Decision Requirement Diagram

Elements

COVID19 Patient Risk for Fatal Disease

Overview

The risk for mortality associated with a COVID-19 infection increases with age and comorbid conditions.

COVID19 Patient Risk Fatal Disease

Decision Requirement Diagram

Elements

References (Knowledge Source)

Description

Clinical predictors of mortality due to COVID-19 based on an analysis of data of 150 patients from WRuan Q, Yang K, et al. uhan, China. Intensive Care Medicine. doi: 10.1007/s00134-020-05991-x

Attachment

Clinical predictors of mortality due to COVID-19 based on an analysis of data of 150 patients from Wuhan, China.

Risk for Fatal COVID19 Infection (Decision)

Decision Logic (Decision Table)

Risk for Fatal COVID19 Infection

F

Age related risk

Overall comorbidity

Risk for Fatal COVID19 Infection

Description

"very low", "low", "moderate", "high", "very high"
"None", "Mild", "Moderate", "Severe"
"very low", "low", "moderate", "high", "very high"

1

"very low"

"None"

"very low"

2

"very low"

"Mild"

"low"

3

"very low"

"Moderate"

"moderate"

4

"very low"

"Severe"

"high"

5

"low"

"None"

"low"

6

"low"

"Mild"

"low"

7

"low"

"Moderate"

"moderate"

8

"low"

"Severe"

"high"

9

"moderate"

"None"

"moderate"

10

"moderate"

"Mild"

"moderate"

11

"moderate"

"Moderate"

"high"

12

"moderate"

"Severe"

"very high"

13

"high"

"None"

"high"

14

"high"

"Mild"

"high"

15

"high"

"Moderate"

"very high"

16

"high"

"Severe"

"very high"

17

"very high"

-

"very high"


Age related risk (Decision)

Decision Logic (Decision Table)

Age related risk

F

Age in Years

Age related risk

Description

[0..125]
"very low", "low", "moderate", "high", "very high"

1

<=40

"very low"

2

(40..50]

"low"

3

(50..65]

"moderate"

4

(65..70]

"high"

5

>70

"very high"


Overall comorbidity (Decision)

Decision Logic (Decision Table)

Overall comorbidity

F

Number of mild comorbid conditions

Number of moderate comorbid conditions

Number of severe comorbid conditions

Overall comorbidity

Description

"None", "Mild", "Moderate", "Severe"

1

-

-

>=1

"Severe"

2

-

>=2

-

"Severe"

3

>=3

1

-

"Severe"

4

<3

1

-

"Moderate"

5

6

-

-

"Severe"

6

3, 4, 5

-

-

"Moderate"

7

1, 2

-

-

"Mild"

8

0

0

0

"None"


Number of mild comorbid conditions (Decision)

Decision Logic (Decision Table)

Number of mild comorbid conditions

C+

COPD or chronic lung disease

Coronary artery disease

Diabetes mellitus

Heart failure

Immunodeficiency including transplant

Other

Number of mild comorbid conditions

Description

"None", "Mild", "Moderate", "Severe"
"None", "Mild", "Moderate", "Severe"
"None", "Mild", "Moderate", "Severe"
"None", "Mild", "Moderate", "Severe"
"None", "Mild", "Moderate", "Severe"
"None", "Mild", "Moderate", "Severe"

1

"Mild"

-

-

-

-

-

1

2

"None", "Moderate", "Severe"

-

-

-

-

-

0

3

-

"Mild"

-

-

-

-

1

4

-

"None", "Moderate", "Severe"

-

-

-

-

0

5

-

-

"Mild"

-

-

-

1

6

-

-

"None", "Moderate", "Severe"

-

-

-

0

7

-

-

-

"Mild"

-

-

1

8

-

-

-

"None", "Moderate", "Severe"

-

-

0

9

-

-

-

-

"Mild"

-

1

10

-

-

-

-

"None", "Moderate", "Severe"

-

0

11

-

-

-

-

-

"Mild"

1

12

-

-

-

-

-

"None", "Moderate", "Severe"

0


Number of moderate comorbid conditions (Decision)

Decision Logic (Decision Table)

Number of moderate comorbid conditions

C+

COPD or chronic lung disease

Coronary artery disease

Diabetes mellitus

Heart failure

Immunodeficiency including transplant

Other

Number of moderate comorbid conditions

Description

"None", "Mild", "Moderate", "Severe"
"None", "Mild", "Moderate", "Severe"
"None", "Mild", "Moderate", "Severe"
"None", "Mild", "Moderate", "Severe"
"None", "Mild", "Moderate", "Severe"
"None", "Mild", "Moderate", "Severe"

1

"Moderate"

-

-

-

-

-

1

2

"None", "Mild", "Severe"

-

-

-

-

-

0

3

-

"Moderate"

-

-

-

-

1

4

-

"None", "Mild", "Severe"

-

-

-

-

0

5

-

-

"Moderate"

-

-

-

1

6

-

-

"None", "Mild", "Severe"

-

-

-

0

7

-

-

-

"Moderate"

-

-

1

8

-

-

-

"None", "Mild", "Severe"

-

-

0

9

-

-

-

-

"Moderate"

-

1

10

-

-

-

-

"None", "Mild", "Severe"

-

0

11

-

-

-

-

-

"Moderate"

1

12

-

-

-

-

-

"None", "Mild", "Severe"

0


Number of severe comorbid conditions (Decision)

Decision Logic (Decision Table)

Number of severe comorbid conditions

C+

COPD or chronic lung disease

Coronary artery disease

Diabetes mellitus

Heart failure

Immunodeficiency including transplant

Other

Number of severe comorbid conditions

Description

"None", "Mild", "Moderate", "Severe"
"None", "Mild", "Moderate", "Severe"
"None", "Mild", "Moderate", "Severe"
"None", "Mild", "Moderate", "Severe"
"None", "Mild", "Moderate", "Severe"
"None", "Mild", "Moderate", "Severe"

1

"Severe"

-

-

-

-

-

1

2

"None", "Mild", "Moderate"

-

-

-

-

-

0

3

-

"Severe"

-

-

-

-

1

4

-

"None", "Mild", "Moderate"

-

-

-

-

0

5

-

-

"Severe"

-

-

-

1

6

-

-

"None", "Mild", "Moderate"

-

-

-

0

7

-

-

-

"Severe"

-

-

1

8

-

-

-

"None", "Mild", "Moderate"

-

-

0

9

-

-

-

-

"Severe"

-

1

10

-

-

-

-

"None", "Mild", "Moderate"

-

0

11

-

-

-

-

-

"Severe"

1

12

-

-

-

-

-

"None", "Mild", "Moderate"

0


Age in Years (Input Data)

Semantic Link

Demographics Vitals Pulmonary - Age in Years

COPD or chronic lung disease (Input Data)

Heart failure (Input Data)

Coronary artery disease (Input Data)

Diabetes mellitus (Input Data)

Immunodeficiency including transplant (Input Data)

Other (Input Data)