Decision Modeler Report

COVID19 Adult Mortality Model Zhou

Published: 4/14/2020

By: John Svirbely MD

Table of Contents

COVID19 Adult Mortality Model Zhou

Overview

COVID19 Mortality Risk Zhou

Decision Requirement Diagram

Elements

COVID19 Adult Mortality Model Zhou

Overview

Zhou et al developed a simple model for predicting in-patient mortality of a patient with COVID-19. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from multiple institutions in China.

COVID19 Mortality Risk Zhou

Decision Requirement Diagram

Elements

Percent inpatient mortality (Decision)

Decision Logic (Literal Expression)

Percent inpatient mortality

100/(1+exp((-1)*Value of X))


References (Knowledge Source)

Description

Zhou F, Yu T, et al. Clinical course and risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective cohort study. Lancet. 2020. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30566-3.

Attachment

Clinical course and risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective cohort study.

Value of X (Decision)

Decision Logic (Literal Expression)

Value of X

Points for absolute lymphocyte count+Points for age+Points for coronary artery disease+Points for DDimer on admission+Points for SOFA score on admission-12.73


Points for age (Decision)

Decision Logic (Literal Expression)

Points for age

0.096*Age in Years


Points for coronary artery disease (Decision)

Decision Logic (Decision Table)

Points for coronary artery disease

F

History of coronary artery disease

Points for coronary artery disease

Description

1

false

0

2

true

1


Points for SOFA score on admission (Decision)

Decision Logic (Literal Expression)

Points for SOFA score on admission

1.73*SOFA score


Points for absolute lymphocyte count (Decision)

Decision Logic (Literal Expression)

Points for absolute lymphocyte count

-1.63*Absolute lymphocyte count in billion per L


Points for DDimer on admission (Decision)

Decision Logic (Decision Table)

Points for DDimer on admission

F

DDimer in micrograms per liter

Points for DDimer on admission

Description

[0..10000]

1

<=0.5

0

2

(0.5..1]

0.58

3

>1

2.67


Age in Years (Input Data)

Semantic Link

Demographics Vitals Pulmonary - Age in Years

History of coronary artery disease (Input Data)

SOFA score (Input Data)

Absolute lymphocyte count in billion per L (Decision)

Decision Logic (Literal Expression)

Absolute lymphocyte count in billion per L

WBC Count in billion per L*Percent lymphocytes in the peripheral blood differential/100


DDimer in micrograms per liter (Input Data)

WBC Count in billion per L (Input Data)

Semantic Link

Hematology and Urine - WBC Count in billion per L

Percent lymphocytes in the peripheral blood differential (Input Data)

Semantic Link

Hematology and Urine - Percent lymphocytes in the peripheral blood differential